Comments on: Nuke it from the ground…it’s the only way to be sure. http://ihnatko.com/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/ The blog of Andy Ihnatko, internationally-beloved technology pundit. Sun, 01 Aug 2010 04:55:08 -0700 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: julian http://ihnatko.com/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/comment-page-1/#comment-4645 julian Mon, 18 Feb 2008 05:19:49 +0000 http://ihnatko.com/index.php/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/#comment-4645 I like your Andromeda Strain suggestion - "We have a fire". Your suspicions are not unwarranted. When Skylab - a truly gigantic hunk of metal de-orbited, it was allowed to fall its merry way. What may be equally important is that the interceptor is reportedly going to be sea-launched from a cruiser. Any interceptor which can do this can form part of an intercept system to pick up re-entering ICBM/IRBM warheads. I like your Andromeda Strain suggestion – “We have a fire”. Your suspicions are not unwarranted. When Skylab – a truly gigantic hunk of metal de-orbited, it was allowed to fall its merry way. What may be equally important is that the interceptor is reportedly going to be sea-launched from a cruiser. Any interceptor which can do this can form part of an intercept system to pick up re-entering ICBM/IRBM warheads.

]]> By: tim http://ihnatko.com/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/comment-page-1/#comment-4502 tim Fri, 15 Feb 2008 19:47:02 +0000 http://ihnatko.com/index.php/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/#comment-4502 They're saying the chances are decent (i.e. 0.00something %, not 0.0000000something %) that it'll land in a populated area. Looking at the ground track (which can be found at http://www.heavens-above.com), I completely believe them. Since it's completely uncontrolled, the reentry location is highly dependent on factors like attitude, atmospheric density, solar output, whether the moon is in the house of Aquarius, etc. There's really no good way to predict the impact site with any certainty. Also note on the heavens-above.com website that it'll be visible to the naked eye over the next several days; just punch in your location and the website will tell you where to look. They’re saying the chances are decent (i.e. 0.00something %, not 0.0000000something %) that it’ll land in a populated area. Looking at the ground track (which can be found at http://www.heavens-above.com), I completely believe them. Since it’s completely uncontrolled, the reentry location is highly dependent on factors like attitude, atmospheric density, solar output, whether the moon is in the house of Aquarius, etc. There’s really no good way to predict the impact site with any certainty.

Also note on the heavens-above.com website that it’ll be visible to the naked eye over the next several days; just punch in your location and the website will tell you where to look.

]]> By: Ihnatko http://ihnatko.com/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/comment-page-1/#comment-4500 Ihnatko Fri, 15 Feb 2008 19:32:05 +0000 http://ihnatko.com/index.php/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/#comment-4500 @tim - Yeah, that's why I was suspicious of the "it's too dangerous to let fall" story. And on top of everything else, what are the chances that it'll even come down in a populated area? I've no idea what its track is. @tim – Yeah, that’s why I was suspicious of the “it’s too dangerous to let fall” story. And on top of everything else, what are the chances that it’ll even come down in a populated area? I’ve no idea what its track is.

]]> By: Ihnatko http://ihnatko.com/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/comment-page-1/#comment-4499 Ihnatko Fri, 15 Feb 2008 19:19:49 +0000 http://ihnatko.com/index.php/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/#comment-4499 But let's be specific: I vote for the Milla of "Fifth Element." I'm even willing to provide the Ace bandages. The "Resident Evil" one has plenty of charm but she's also rather heavily armed. I mean, you thought you were under pressure buying a Valentine's Day gift for your <i>current</i> girlfriend...and she works in Marketing! But let’s be specific: I vote for the Milla of “Fifth Element.” I’m even willing to provide the Ace bandages. The “Resident Evil” one has plenty of charm but she’s also rather heavily armed.

I mean, you thought you were under pressure buying a Valentine’s Day gift for your current girlfriend…and she works in Marketing!

]]> By: tim http://ihnatko.com/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/comment-page-1/#comment-4496 tim Fri, 15 Feb 2008 18:08:57 +0000 http://ihnatko.com/index.php/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/#comment-4496 It's really about option #1 - a nice little note to China along the lines of "I can has ASAT missiles." Based on my experience with uncontrolled reentry of a small university research satellite, I'll hazard that any nifty spy gadgets on board are unlikely to survive reentry. As for a plutonium fuel source, it's unlikely since it's much easier to power an Earth-orbit-bound satellite with solar panels; they save the RTGs for deep-space stuff where sunlight isn't quite as shiny. Even if it were powered by RTGs, those things are designed to be super-safe even if the rocket carrying them blows up halfway to orbit (an unfortunate but not unlikely scenario) -- each tiny little bit of plutonium is encased in its own ceramic reentry capsule. That said, if Milla Jovovich is indeed involved in this recovery effort, I'm all for it. It’s really about option #1 – a nice little note to China along the lines of “I can has ASAT missiles.” Based on my experience with uncontrolled reentry of a small university research satellite, I’ll hazard that any nifty spy gadgets on board are unlikely to survive reentry. As for a plutonium fuel source, it’s unlikely since it’s much easier to power an Earth-orbit-bound satellite with solar panels; they save the RTGs for deep-space stuff where sunlight isn’t quite as shiny. Even if it were powered by RTGs, those things are designed to be super-safe even if the rocket carrying them blows up halfway to orbit (an unfortunate but not unlikely scenario) — each tiny little bit of plutonium is encased in its own ceramic reentry capsule.

That said, if Milla Jovovich is indeed involved in this recovery effort, I’m all for it.

]]> By: Idle Speculator http://ihnatko.com/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/comment-page-1/#comment-4494 Idle Speculator Fri, 15 Feb 2008 17:04:14 +0000 http://ihnatko.com/index.php/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/#comment-4494 There are three possible reasons I've come up with for why they may want to do this: 1) China blew up a satellite last year now we need to. This is unlikely since about 20% of the orbital junk is from this one intercept. No one, particularly the Air Force guys who track space trash, wants to see more razor sharp shards orbiting the earth at 15,000 MPH. 2) The satellite has super cool spy gadgets that we don't want anyone else to get. Slightly more plausible, I guess, but if this were the case it could be blown up with an intercept in the atmosphere (gee, wouldn't this be a good time to demonstrate how well that anti-ballistic missile shield we've been pouring billions into since the Reagan years works?) 3) Most likely in my opinion is that it uses plutonium fuel much like Cassini and other spacecraft we already know about. If this is the reason, we all had better hope that missile hits because an uncontrolled plutonium plume is crap-your-pants bad. No, it's worse than that. It's lethal at 4 parts per billion bad. There are three possible reasons I’ve come up with for why they may want to do this: 1) China blew up a satellite last year now we need to. This is unlikely since about 20% of the orbital junk is from this one intercept. No one, particularly the Air Force guys who track space trash, wants to see more razor sharp shards orbiting the earth at 15,000 MPH. 2) The satellite has super cool spy gadgets that we don’t want anyone else to get. Slightly more plausible, I guess, but if this were the case it could be blown up with an intercept in the atmosphere (gee, wouldn’t this be a good time to demonstrate how well that anti-ballistic missile shield we’ve been pouring billions into since the Reagan years works?) 3) Most likely in my opinion is that it uses plutonium fuel much like Cassini and other spacecraft we already know about. If this is the reason, we all had better hope that missile hits because an uncontrolled plutonium plume is crap-your-pants bad. No, it’s worse than that. It’s lethal at 4 parts per billion bad.

]]> By: Jason Clark http://ihnatko.com/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/comment-page-1/#comment-4491 Jason Clark Fri, 15 Feb 2008 16:08:26 +0000 http://ihnatko.com/index.php/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/#comment-4491 Huh. I thought it was the Gubmint, with a b. Of course, not too far from where I grew up in Virginia, it was the Revenoors. Huh. I thought it was the Gubmint, with a b. Of course, not too far from where I grew up in Virginia, it was the Revenoors.

]]> By: Mark http://ihnatko.com/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/comment-page-1/#comment-4485 Mark Fri, 15 Feb 2008 14:18:24 +0000 http://ihnatko.com/index.php/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/#comment-4485 Error Code : 601 Error Code : 601

]]> By: STrRedWolf http://ihnatko.com/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/comment-page-1/#comment-4482 STrRedWolf Fri, 15 Feb 2008 13:00:19 +0000 http://ihnatko.com/index.php/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/#comment-4482 I think we can guessimate both answers. #1: China has itself blown up an old weather satellite, so this could be a good side-effect. #2: They claim they lost contact when everything went pear shaped related to power (beyond that of the chemical engines), and they can't raise it on the radio. So whatever home-grown alien life is there, it's already taken over. I believe, though, it's deeply thinking if Dubba's worth it, so we have a chance. Plus, it's a spy sat. We can't let anyone get a hold of the tech! I think we can guessimate both answers.

#1: China has itself blown up an old weather satellite, so this could be a good side-effect.

#2: They claim they lost contact when everything went pear shaped related to power (beyond that of the chemical engines), and they can’t raise it on the radio. So whatever home-grown alien life is there, it’s already taken over.

I believe, though, it’s deeply thinking if Dubba’s worth it, so we have a chance. Plus, it’s a spy sat. We can’t let anyone get a hold of the tech!

]]> By: Rusty http://ihnatko.com/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/comment-page-1/#comment-4465 Rusty Fri, 15 Feb 2008 06:10:26 +0000 http://ihnatko.com/index.php/2008/02/15/nuke-it-from-the-groundits-the-only-way-to-be-sure/#comment-4465 If we have learned anything from comic books, it is that radiation in space can cause astonishing and sometimes terrifying transformations. We can only hope that whatever IS in those satellite bits when they come crashing to earth won't cause nearly as much suffering as the recent Fantastic Four movies. If we have learned anything from comic books, it is that radiation in space can cause astonishing and sometimes terrifying transformations. We can only hope that whatever IS in those satellite bits when they come crashing to earth won’t cause nearly as much suffering as the recent Fantastic Four movies.

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